Thoughts and ideas on people and technology.
January 6, 2025
“Technology never changes” sounds insane, doesn’t it? Of course it changes! Far too fast! New models of smartphones, laptops, refrigerators, cars, and toasters every year! And that’s just hardware; software and the internet move even faster. Every time you open your social media app of choice you’re greeted with a new thing to figure out. But under the hood of version 999 of all these newfangled widgets, they’re all the same as they’ve ever been, because technology never changes.
Does that still sound crazy to you? Excellent! That means I have you hooked for the rest of this article! All humour aside, when I say, “technology never changes”, I’m talking about the underlying concepts, how we use technology, and on the organization side, how we plan for it. That last one will be our focus today. The tech strategies I help organizations implement haven’t changed since I started in tech, and my predecessors would probably mirror the same, especially since they’re the ones I learned these concepts from.
Let’s dive in. If you’ve been involved in vehicle fleet management this first one will be familiar. For technology hardware there’s a concept called an “evergreen program”, which is essentially a schedule of when hardware is cycled or replaced. End-user hardware such as laptops, desktops, and smartphones is 3 years, servers is 6, wired network elements are 9, and wireless (mostly access points) is 6. These numbers aren’t written in stone or the same for every org; they’re just meant to be a starting point. But here's the big secret: most of this equipment, if it’s business-grade, properly maintained, and treated well, will last at least 10 years. The reason for the comparatively short evergreen cycles is two-fold: downtime can be more expensive than replacing equipment, and replacing equipment is usually a tough sell and put off as long as possible regardless of programs or policy. That’s an article all by itself; lets move along for now. Those evergreen program and lifetime numbers haven’t changed. Sure there’s a new Macbook every year and your cousin’s buddy who makes 7 figures working for a California design firm gets them on release day, but those are the exception. Your 5-person non-profit is going to replace laptops on double cycles based on tech strategy that hasn’t changed. Because technology never changes.
I mentioned software earlier and that it moves even faster. While this is true, tech strategy around it hasn’t changed. I’ll use the ubiquitous Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Office suite as examples. New major versions used to release roughly every 3 years. If you’re replacing your laptops and desktops on a 3 year cycle, you never really have to worry about upgrading Windows or Office separately. Today Microsoft has migrated most of their products to a subscription model, but the cycle is the same. Because technology never changes.
But what about AI? Isn’t it quadrupling in power every few minutes? Hasn’t it used the energy of a thousand suns to drink the oceans dry in order to feed it’s insatiable quantum-powered hunger for knowledge and control? No, it hasn’t. In fact, if news articles are to be believed; ChatGPT et al. have run up against a bit of a wall. My prediction is that we’ll start seeing AI in more common usage sometime late this year, which, not-so-coincidentally, will be about 3 years since it’s public release. Because technology never changes.
©2025 ScaleBright Solutions Copyright All Right Reserved.